Song of the dinosaur?

Readers may have noticed a dearth of posts lately -- the main reason being that I've found it increasingly difficult to say anything especially optimistic or hopeful about our current situation and prospects (e.g. recession/depression, climate change, resource depletion, etc.). Funnily enough, it's not the problems that worry me the most -- its the cultural inertia that seems to be preventing us from doing anything significant about them. Those in power seem to be doing diametrically the opposite things they should be doing, and those not in power (i.e. pretty much everyone I know including myself) seem so distracted by economic worries, that they can only stand by and watch.

One book I've read recently echoes this feeling; Confronting Collapse by Michael C. Ruppert. The author was raised in a Republican family and is a former LAPD narcotics investigator. In his book, he links money with energy (e.g. fossil fuels) and suggests that oil shortages and price spikes triggered the economic crash. He suggests that oil production has already peaked, that the era of cheap oil is over, and that the current recession/depression in which we find ourselves is permanent.

He is highly sceptical of the alternatives to oil being able to support a global economy, and sees a return to localization as the only viable option. He suggests that we simply do not have the finances to restructure our energy systems in the time required. He sees the political and economic system of America as completely corrupt, and BOTH left and right as obsolete and irrelevant for dealing with our current problems. He finally suggests a 25 point emergency plan for dealing with this situation.

I'm sympathetic to much of what Ruppert says, although I think the issue of peak oil is far more complex than he suggests. About three years ago, I worked in a company that processed geophysical data and if nothing else, it taught me that there's a lot of uncertainty and unknowns about assessing how much oil there is left. But I think that most geologists would concur that it's a finite amount, and the question of oil production peaks is when, not if. It's also true that the rate of discovery has been in sharp decline for some decades, which is partly why highly destructive practices like shale sand exploitation are being followed. And it's also true that our economic growth is directly linked to the use (i.e. burning) of fossil fuels.

The bottom line is that both our economic and energy systems, which are indeed linked, need to be completely changed. If they are not, then I think it reasonable to suppose that the global civilization will collapse. This may be viewed with relish by some, but unfortunately, even the most radical of us depend upon the current systems, and the fossil fuel economy, to exist. A collapse would undoubtedly mean death, mass displacement and suffering on an immense scale. It would be better to start a transition now; but this will have to be begun by a grass-roots movement, or collection of movements. I'm afraid I can't see our current political systems doing it. The current UK government, for example, seems to be dedicated to reliving the economic policies of a generation ago, that I think are worse than useless today and tangential to the real issues, which are, really, steadfastly ignored.

The biggest problem I have with Ruppert's book is that, whilst he fairly convincing in outlining our current ills, I think that he lacks imagination and is too black and white about the issues. This, of course, could be called realism, but it could also be called the cry of the dinosaur who's unable to imagine a world beyond that which he currently inhabits. Like Ruppert, I think that we are currently experiencing a transition from one sort of world into another. However, I am afraid that if all we can envisage is collapse, then collapse is all we're going to get. Hope is essential for naviagting through dark times.